Only 34% of new users return for their O2 order. Spend 85% of the ₹50L fixing that (coach coverage, female track, app habit, auto pay default). 15% on a reversible Mumbai clinic test. One time budget, so I fund things that keep paying into next quarter, not a recurring clinic lease.
85% of ₹50L, i.e. ₹42.5L
15% of ₹50L, setup only
+6 pp committed
~44% payback, compounds into Q2 & Q3
25k O1 acquired at ₹950 CAC. Only 34% return for O2 (men 36%, women 31%). But 57% of O2 users continue to O3, so the product clearly works for those who stay. The break is specifically at first refill. Every 1pp of retention = ~₹4.5L gross profit on this cohort. 6pp = ₹27L gross, ~₹22L net after reward redemption costs.
Capacity is already in the P&L at ₹120/user/month. It just isn't reaching these users. Routing problem, not hiring.
Fix: structured Day 3 + Day 14 touchpoint.
Men 36%, women 31%. Protocol reads male first (minoxidil, finasteride). Women need a different conversation: PCOS, postpartum, side effects.
Fix: dedicated female track + tailored content.
On a protocol that needs 5 to 6 months of adherence. The app is where progress should be visible and refills should be nudged. Not happening.
Fix: points + streak loop tied to the refill.
Day 3: a universal async touchpoint for every user, a pre recorded video plus a WhatsApp message. Day 14: by now we have 2 weeks of signals (app opens, photo uploads, chat questions). At risk users get a live call, healthy users get an async check in. Total coach load roughly matches today.
Target: +4pp. Cost: ₹8L.
Today's protocol reads male first. Build a female consult flow with derm support, PCOS and postpartum content, and a safer messaging frame for side effects in Weeks 1-2. Week 1 is a cohort audit to find the weakest step, then fund that step. Budget flexible until I know which step is binding.
Target: +1pp. Cost: ₹10L.
Users start with 10 welcome points on Day 1 as a small anchor, then earn daily through photo uploads (5 points/day × 25 days = 125 points) and a Day 25 milestone bonus of 155 points. Total 290 points = ₹145 = exactly 5% off next order, timed with the reorder window so the next kit arrives by Day 30 with no supply gap. A Day 14 peer story match (real before/after from a past customer at the same stage) lands via WhatsApp to fight doubt at the cohort's weakest point. Leakage is low by design: welcome is tiny, the bulk of the reward is gated behind engagement.
Target: DAU 17→30%, +1.5pp retention. Cost: ₹15L.
Flip checkout so auto pay on the next monthly kit becomes the default, with a visible one click pause. A Day 25 WhatsApp nudge fires before the reorder window (reminder + discount + one tap order) so the system runs before the kit runs out. A/B tested first so we catch any drop in upfront conversion before full rollout.
Target: +1pp. Cost: ₹5L.
The safety net for everything the earlier levers miss. By Day 35, the user has been 5 days without product. WhatsApp delivers a harder recovery message with save options (pause, skip, swap, coach call) plus a free ₹250 item if they place the O2 order within 5 days. Cost only hits actual saves, not the full outreach pool. ~130 users saved × ₹250 = ~₹33,000 in reward cost per quarter. Rides on the WhatsApp flows infra shared with the Day 25 nudge.
Target: +0.5pp. Cost: ₹2L (WhatsApp flows, shared).
Kit arrives. 10 welcome points credited as Day 1 anchor. Streak mechanism starts: upload a daily photo to earn 5 points.
Pre-recorded video + WhatsApp message. Kills early side-effect anxiety.
At-risk users get a live coach call. Peer story match via WhatsApp for everyone.
10 welcome + 125 streak (5×25) + 155 milestone = 290 points = 5% off (₹145). WhatsApp nudge if not ordered. O2 placed via auto pay for users who didn't remove the option at first checkout.
For drifters only. WhatsApp: save flow (pause/skip/swap/coach) + free item if ordered in 5 days.
Standalone, Pune loses ₹1.4L/month. But it lifts nearby digital conversions by 14%, worth ~₹3.8L in gross profit. Net +₹2.4L. So the clinic isn't a retail business, it's a CAC and conversion engine for the local digital funnel.
| O1 starts | 1,100 × 37% = 407 |
| Month 1 revenue | 407 × ₹3,300 = ₹13.4L |
| Gross profit @ 62% | ₹8.3L |
| Fixed costs | minus ₹9.7L |
| Halo lift (14% on ~1,500 digital leads) | + ₹3.8L gross profit |
| Net contribution | + ₹2.4L |
| Clinic O1→O2 | Call |
|---|---|
| Below 34% | pause |
| 34% to 40% | pilot |
| Above 40% | scale Q2 |
Brief doesn't split clinic vs digital retention. Mumbai pilot measures this in Q1 and decides the call.
| Lever | Gross Δ | Gross profit |
|---|---|---|
| Coach playbook | +4 pp | ₹18.0L |
| Female track | +1 pp | ₹4.5L |
| App habit (via points discount) | +1.5 pp | ₹6.7L |
| Auto pay default | +1 pp | ₹4.5L |
| Day 35 WhatsApp recovery | +0.5 pp | ₹2.3L |
| Overlap (same user, many levers) | minus 2 pp | minus ₹9L |
| Subtotal (gross) | +6 pp | ₹27L |
| Reward costs (points discount + Day 35 free item) | minus ₹5L | |
| Net committed | ~₹22L | |
| Mumbai halo (upside, not counted) | + ₹3.0L |
Every lever keeps running past Q1 at near zero marginal cost. 2 to 3 quarter ROI ~110 to 130% as retention compounds into O3.
| Initiative | Spend | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Coach playbook + engagement triage | ₹8L | Tooling |
| Female track | ₹10L | Content + ops |
| Points economy + peer story match | ₹15L | Eng + CRM |
| Auto pay default + checkout infra | ₹5L | Eng |
| Day 25 + Day 35 WhatsApp flows | ₹2L | CRM |
| Mumbai clinic pilot (setup) | ₹7L | Capex only |
| A/B infra + measurement | ₹3L | Infra |
| Total | ₹50L |
The ₹50L above is build cost only. The variable reward costs (points redemption + Day 35 free item) are estimated at ~₹5L/quarter and shown as a separate line in the impact table on the left, so the net committed ₹22L accounts for all in costs.
Supply check: 6pp lift × ~8,300 new O1/month = ~500 extra kits/month. Well inside the 6,000 kit buffer. Tracked weekly from Week 3.
| # | Metric | Target | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O1 to O2 retention | 34% to 40% | North star |
| 2 | Coach touchpoint reach | 65% to 95% | Input metric |
| 3 | App DAU (21 day cohort) | 17% to 30% | Leading indicator |
| 4 | Day 25 on time reorder rate | tested, not assumed | Creative add |
| 5 | Blended CAC | ₹950 to ₹820 | Secondary |