Traya·BSM Case
01 / 08
Traya Health · BSM Case

Build systems that outlast the quarter.

With one quarter of ownership and a one time ₹50L capex, every rupee must compound past Day 90. Recommendation: go retention heavy (85%) via software and playbooks that keep paying forever, and run a lean clinic pilot (15%) with setup cost only, no lease commitments.

Primary betRetention

85% of ₹50L · ₹42.5L

Clinic play1 lean pilot

15% of ₹50L · ₹7.5L setup only

O1 to O2 target34% to 42%

+8 pp inside the quarter

In quarter GP~₹48L

Near full payback in 90 days

Diagnosis · Where the revenue leaks

The funnel loses two thirds of buyers between Month 1 and Month 2.

Acquisition is healthy. The P&L damage happens at the very first refill, an activation problem masquerading as a retention problem.

O1 Acquired (90d)25,000
healthy
O1 to O234%
below benchmark
O2 to O357%
strong
CAC₹950
payback fragile

Stage wise drop off (per 100 acquired)

StageUsersConversion
O1 start100 
O2 retained34
O3 retained19

Why the leak matters

  • At 34% O1 to O2, CAC payback sits at ~1.9 kits, essentially break even on gross margin.
  • Moving O1 to O2 to 42% shortens payback to ~1.5 kits and compounds via the strong 57% O2 to O3.
  • Every +1pp of O1 to O2 adds ~₹4.5L of gross profit on a 25k cohort.
Three insights hiding in the data

The data already tells us what to fix.

Insight 1

Coaching is under delivered, not under performing.

35% of O1 users receive zero coach calls in the first 21 days. Coach cost (₹120/user/mo) is already paid, so this is unused inventory, not a budget problem.

35%
0 calls
20%
2+ calls
Insight 2

Female cohort retains 5pp worse than male.

Male O1 to O2 36% vs. Female 31%. Likely rooted in protocol design, content tone and side effect anxiety. A dedicated female track is high leverage.

Male 36%
Female 31%
Insight 3

App is a habit vehicle we're not driving.

Only 17% DAU among O1. Users who open the app daily in weeks 1 to 3 retain materially better across subscription businesses, so this is an activation moat we're leaving unlocked.

Strategic thesis

One quarter, one time capex. Fund what compounds.

With a non recurring ₹50L and 90 days of ownership, a full format clinic (₹9.7L/month recurring) is a commitment I cannot fund. Retention tech, by contrast, keeps paying long after the quarter ends. Split is 85/15.

Bet A · Digital Retention (85% / ₹42.5L)

  • Mandatory coach touch playbook (Day 3 + Day 14) using existing coach capacity.
  • Female specific protocol, content & derm consult track.
  • App activation engine: streaks, progress photos, refill nudges.
  • Auto refill subscription as the default at checkout.
  • Every build is an asset, not a cost. Lives beyond Q1.

Bet B · 1 Lean Clinic Pilot (15% / ₹7.5L)

  • Pune proves the hub model: CAC ₹420 vs ₹950 online, +14% halo within 5 km.
  • Fund setup capex only for 1 Mumbai satellite hub (pop up or co located, no lease).
  • No new full format clinic until Q2 budget is approved.
  • Output: a handoff ready unit economics read for the next BSM / next quarter.
Retention plan · 4 moves, 30 days

Four moves that unlock ~₹4.3 Cr in annualised gross profit.

1 · The "Day 3 + Day 14" Coach Playbook

Reallocate existing coach minutes using AI assisted triage. Move the 35% "0 call" cohort to ≥1 structured call. Script focuses on side effect reassurance & expectation setting.

Target: O1 to O2 +5pp  ·  Cost: ₹8L

2 · Female Protocol Track

Dedicated female derm consult slot, reformulated messaging, PCOS / postpartum lens. Content library refresh.

Target: Close 5pp gender gap  ·  Cost: ₹10L

3 · App Activation Engine

Weekly progress photo ritual, streaks, refill countdown. Push DAU 17% to 30% on O1.

Target: O1 to O2 +2pp  ·  Cost: ₹12L

4 · Auto Refill Default

Opt out subscription at O1 checkout with a "pause anytime" guarantee. Addresses passive churn.

Target: O1 to O2 +1pp  ·  Cost: ₹5L

Clinics · The case for a lean pilot

Pune contributes +₹3.1L/month once halo is counted.

Pune economics (per month)

O1 starts1,100 × 37% = 407
Month 1 revenue407 × ₹3,300 = ₹13.4L
Gross profit @ 62%₹8.3L
Fixed costsminus ₹9.7L
Halo lift (14% on ~1,800 local digital leads)+ ₹4.5L
Net contribution+ ₹3.1L

Retention assumption (sensitivity)

Clinic acquired O1 to O2 not in brief. Assumption: derm consult + ₹3,300 AOV signals higher intent vs. digital.

ScenarioClinic O1 to O2Verdict
Worst30%kill
Base42%pilot
Best48%scale Q2

Base case is the working assumption for this deck. Quarter 1 proves or kills it.

What I will not do (given one time capex, 1 quarter)

  • No new full format clinic. ₹9.7L/month recurring cost is unfundable from one time capex.
  • No long lease or staffed derm chair. Mumbai pilot uses pop up or co located format only.
  • No bundling of clinic P&L with brand marketing spend. Halo is measured via geo holdout.
Financials · ₹50L one time, 90 day payback

Near full payback inside the quarter. Compounds thereafter.

Budget allocation (₹50L, one time)

InitiativeSpendType
Coach playbook + AI triage₹8LTooling
Female protocol track₹10LContent
App activation engine₹15LEng + CRM
Auto refill at checkout₹5LEng
1 Mumbai clinic pilot (setup)₹7.5LCapex only
Experimentation + measurement₹4.5LA/B infra
Total₹50L 

Expected impact (25k cohort, in quarter)

LeverΔ O1 to O2Δ GP
Coach playbook+5 pp₹22.5L
Female track+1.5 pp₹6.7L
App activation+2 pp₹9.0L
Auto refill+1 pp₹4.5L
Mumbai pilot halo ₹3.0L
Total+9.5 pp~₹45.7L

In quarter payback: 91%. Beyond Q1, tech assets keep compounding at zero marginal cost — that's the win.

Key assumptions: O1 to O2 stable at 34% (per brief) · AOV ₹2,900 · GM 62% · clinic acquired retention assumed at 42% base case · no coach headcount added · halo measured via geo holdout.

30 day roadmap · What I do on Day 1

Ship fast, measure honestly, scale only what pays.

Week 1

Diagnose & staff

  • Coach playbook v1 piloted on 2k O1 users
  • Female cohort deep dive (drop off, NPS)
  • Clinic site shortlist (Mumbai, Bangalore)
Week 2

Build & launch

  • Auto refill A / B live at checkout
  • App nudge engine in production
  • Female track content + consult slots live
Week 3

Scale & learn

  • Coach playbook rolled to 100% of new O1
  • Mumbai satellite hub soft launch
  • First read on O1 to O2 cohort uplift
Week 4

Decide & handoff

  • Go / no go read on each lever vs. hurdle
  • Mumbai pilot unit economics documented
  • Q2 playbook + handoff pack for next owner

North star metrics (weekly review)

O1 to O2
34% to 42%
Coach reach
65% to 90% with ≥1 call
App DAU
17% to 30%
Blended CAC
₹950 to ₹820

What I hand off on Day 90

  • Coach playbook + AI triage, live across 100% of O1
  • Auto refill default, running in production
  • App activation engine, measured against a control
  • Female track, with consult slots booked out
  • Mumbai pilot P&L with clean Q2 scale / kill decision