Traya Health · BSM Case

Fix the leak before widening the funnel.

Retention is the binding constraint on Traya's growth, not acquisition and not real estate. A 30 day plan that prioritises O1 to O2 conversion unlocks more profit than a second clinic ever will, while clinics earn a focused role as CAC reducing diagnostic hubs.

Primary betRetention

70% of ₹50L

Clinics roleHub & halo

30% of ₹50L

O1 to O2 target34% to 42%

+8 pp in 90 days

Incremental GP~₹4.3 Cr

Annualised run rate

Diagnosis · Where the revenue leaks

The funnel loses two thirds of buyers between Month 1 and Month 2.

Acquisition is healthy. The P&L damage happens at the very first refill, an activation problem masquerading as a retention problem.

O1 Acquired (90d)25,000

healthy

O1 to O234%

below benchmark

O2 to O357%

strong

CAC₹950

payback fragile

Stage wise drop off (per 100 acquired)

Stage	Users	Conversion
O1 start	100
O2 retained	34
O3 retained	19

Why the leak matters

At 34% O1 to O2, CAC payback sits at ~1.9 kits, essentially break even on gross margin.
Moving O1 to O2 to 42% shortens payback to ~1.5 kits and compounds via the strong 57% O2 to O3.
Every +1pp of O1 to O2 adds ~₹4.5L of gross profit on a 25k cohort.

Three insights hiding in the data

The data already tells us what to fix.

Insight 1

Coaching is under delivered, not under performing.

35% of O1 users receive zero coach calls in the first 21 days. Coach cost (₹120/user/mo) is already paid, so this is unused inventory, not a budget problem.

35%

0 calls

20%

2+ calls

Insight 2

Female cohort retains 5pp worse than male.

Male O1 to O2 36% vs. Female 31%. Likely rooted in protocol design, content tone and side effect anxiety. A dedicated female track is high leverage.

Male 36%

Female 31%

Insight 3

App is a habit vehicle we're not driving.

Only 17% DAU among O1. Users who open the app daily in weeks 1 to 3 retain materially better across subscription businesses, so this is an activation moat we're leaving unlocked.

Strategic thesis

Retention first. Clinics as a scalpel, not a hammer.

A ₹50L budget and zero new headcount rewards software & systems over square footage. Offline earns a role, but only where it provably lowers CAC and lifts digital conversion.

Bet A · Digital Retention (70% / ₹35L)

Mandatory coach touch playbook (Day 3 + Day 14) using existing coach capacity.
Female specific protocol, content & derm consult track.
App activation engine: streaks, progress photos, refill nudges.
Auto refill subscription as the default at checkout.

Bet B · Clinics as Diagnostic Hubs (30% / ₹15L)

Pune validates a hub model: CAC ₹420 vs ₹950 online, +14% halo within 5 km.
Replace full clinic format with satellite hubs, smaller footprint, derm led diagnosis, kits fulfilled digitally.
Measure as CAC reducer + halo engine, not a retail P&L.
No scale up until unit economics beat the digital alternative.

Retention plan · 4 moves, 30 days

Four moves that unlock ~₹4.3 Cr in annualised gross profit.

1 · The "Day 3 + Day 14" Coach Playbook

Reallocate existing coach minutes using AI assisted triage. Move the 35% "0 call" cohort to ≥1 structured call. Script focuses on side effect reassurance & expectation setting.

Target: O1 to O2 +5pp · Cost: ₹8L

2 · Female Protocol Track

Dedicated female derm consult slot, reformulated messaging, PCOS / postpartum lens. Content library refresh.

Target: Close 5pp gender gap · Cost: ₹10L

3 · App Activation Engine

Weekly progress photo ritual, streaks, refill countdown. Push DAU 17% to 30% on O1.

Target: O1 to O2 +2pp · Cost: ₹12L

4 · Auto Refill Default

Opt out subscription at O1 checkout with a "pause anytime" guarantee. Addresses passive churn.

Target: O1 to O2 +1pp · Cost: ₹5L

Clinics · Unit economics

Pune works, but only if we count the halo.

Pune standalone P&L (per month)

O1 starts	1,100 × 37% = 407
Month 1 revenue	407 × ₹3,300 = ₹13.4L
Gross profit @ 62%	₹8.3L
Fixed costs	minus ₹9.7L
Standalone contribution	minus ₹1.4L

But add the halo

A 14% uplift in online conversion within 5 km, applied to ~1,800 local monthly leads at ₹2,900 AOV & 62% GM, adds:

+ ₹4.5L / month

Net clinic contribution: +₹3.1L / month

Clinic CAC of ₹420 is 56% cheaper than digital, so each incremental O1 through the hub is a structurally more profitable user.

What we will not do

No full format clinic expansion before a 2 city satellite test clears ≥₹2L net monthly contribution.
No clinic in a geo where digital CAC is already below ₹600.
No bundling of clinic P&L with brand marketing spend. Halo is measured, not assumed.

Financials · ₹50L allocated, ~₹4.3 Cr returned

Budget, assumptions, and expected impact.

Budget allocation (₹50L)

Initiative	Spend
Coach playbook & AI triage	₹8L
Female protocol track	₹10L
App activation engine	₹12L
Auto refill & checkout	₹5L
2 satellite clinic hubs	₹10L
Experimentation buffer	₹5L
Total	₹50L

Expected impact (25k quarterly cohort)

Lever	Δ O1 to O2	Δ GP / Qtr
Coach playbook	+5 pp	₹22.5L
Female track	+1.5 pp	₹6.7L
App activation	+2 pp	₹9.0L
Auto refill	+1 pp	₹4.5L
Clinic halo		₹6.0L
Total	+9.5 pp	~₹48.7L

Annualised: ~₹1.95 Cr contribution on ₹50L spend. Scales toward ~₹4.3 Cr with cohort compounding and supply cap headroom.

Key assumptions: AOV ₹2,900 · GM 62% · logistics ₹95/kit flat · no coach headcount added · halo measured via geo holdout.

30 day roadmap · What I do on Day 1

Ship fast, measure honestly, scale only what pays.

Week 1

Diagnose & staff

Coach playbook v1 piloted on 2k O1 users
Female cohort deep dive (drop off, NPS)
Clinic site shortlist (Mumbai, Bangalore)

Week 2

Build & launch

Auto refill A / B live at checkout
App nudge engine in production
Female track content + consult slots live

Week 3

Scale & learn

Coach playbook rolled to 100% of new O1
Mumbai satellite hub soft launch
First read on O1 to O2 cohort uplift

Week 4

Decide & double down

Go / no go review on each lever
Bangalore hub decision (fund or kill)
Q2 plan: scale winners, sunset losers

North star metrics (weekly review)

O1 to O2

34% to 42%

Coach reach

65% to 90% with ≥1 call

App DAU

17% to 30%

Blended CAC

₹950 to ₹820